“Pass or play” in the 2009 Bordeaux bun fight?

The people at The Wine Investment Fund have stuck their necks out and claimed that the fine wine market is going to surge by as much as 18% this year. Of course they would say that wouldn’t they? But they don’t want egg on their face, so perhaps there’s something in it. 

After the market plummeted in late ‘08, the fine wine market has indeed started to pick up again. Lafite ‘05 is now back up to £7,995 at Berry Bros and Rudd and sales director Simon Staples believes it’s going to continue rallying this year and should be up to £10,000 a case by the summer. It’s a pretty tempting prospect.

In its monthly newsletter, the gents who run TWIF, say, “in the second half of 2009 the main indices were up 11-14%. We expect this to be the start of a prolonged and rapid upturn which makes today an ideal time to be investing.”

But what to invest in? The much hyped 2009s will be on the market in May/June and it seems the world and his wife wants a case of Lafite and Mouton. London merchants Bordeaux Index reports the waiting list for the 09s is the longest on record (although I’m not sure that records began so long ago but it sounds impressive, doesn’t it?)

Perhaps it is time to get in and buy up lesser vintages. When the last ‘great’ vintage was on the verge of release (the 2005s, in case you’re not a fine wine geek), Liv-ex analysed the market and looked at unfashionable vintages. It reported first growth wines from lesser vintages had been overlooked and were a good investment prospect, particularly the 2001s and 2002s.

Interestingly they did the same thing in December 2009, asking whether we should “pass or play” on the 09s. From the data, it appears the 05s weren’t such great value for money after all…

“It is the comparatively lesser years of 2001 and 2002 that have shown the greatest returns, with both showing a price rise of 89% over the period. Indeed, the average price increase of all other vintages in the chart equals 63%; 18% higher than that shown by 2005,” said the Liv-ex report.

“In essence, the high price of the 2005 vintage sparked price rises among its lower priced peers. If the trend of four years ago is repeated, then 2006 and 2008 are likely to represent the best opportunities for investment.”

Maybe I should go out and get my hands on some first growths from lesser vintages rather than jumping into the 09 frenzy – it would certainly be a lot more civilised than entering the Bordeaux bun fight.